The gap between Canadian and American unemployment rates continues to expand, with Canada’s jobless rate now sitting 1.6 percentage points higher than its southern neighbour, according to Statistics Canada data released Friday.
Canada’s unemployment rate adjusted to U.S. concepts reached 5.8 per cent in April 2025, compared to just 4.2 per cent in the United States — a significantly wider margin than the historical average of 0.9 percentage points seen during the 2017-2019 period.
The divergence comes as Canadian workers, particularly those in export-dependent industries, express growing concerns about job security amid economic uncertainty and trade tensions with the U.S.
Export-dependent sectors feeling pressure
Nearly one in five employees (18.6 per cent) in industries heavily reliant on U.S. demand for Canadian exports anticipate workforce reductions at their workplaces in the next six months—substantially higher than the national average of 13.2 per cent.
These concerns appear well-founded given April’s manufacturing job losses, which Statistics Canada linked directly to “uncertainty related to tariffs on exports to the United States.”
Despite the overall pessimism, most Canadian workers still feel personally secure in their positions, with nearly three-quarters (73.9 per cent) disagreeing that they might lose their main job in the coming six months.
Public sector workers most pessimistic
Surprisingly, public administration employees expressed the greatest concern about potential workforce reductions, with 25.4 per cent expecting staff decreases over the next six months—the highest proportion across all sectors despite recent hiring for election-related activities.
Educational services ranked second with 19.5 per cent of workers anticipating cuts, reflecting broader fiscal pressures across various levels of government.
Employment rate advantage persists, but narrows
Canada continues to maintain a higher employment rate than the United States—61.5 per cent compared to 60 per cent when adjusted to U.S. concepts—though this traditional advantage has diminished in recent years.
The employment rate gap is most pronounced among core-aged women (25-54), with Canada’s rate of 79.6 per cent significantly outpacing the American rate of 75 per cent, despite recent employment losses in this demographic.
Young workers aged 15 to 24 reported the highest personal job insecurity, with 9.6 per cent agreeing they might lose their jobs within six months, compared to 7.3 per cent of core-aged workers and 7.7 per cent of those 55 and older.
