Alberta’s economy is projected to grow faster than the rest of Canada this year, bolstered by construction, energy exports and population gains, according to a new economic outlook from ATB Financial
The province’s real GDP is expected to grow by 1.9 per cent in 2025 and 2.2 per cent in 2026—an upgrade from previous forecasts of 1.5 per cent and 1.9 per cent, respectively. By contrast, national GDP growth is forecast at just one per cent this year.
“Alberta’s economy is feeling the effects of the trade war, and the outlook for oil prices has softened,” said ATB Financial chief economist Mark Parsons. “However, we expect that Alberta’s economy will continue to weather the turmoil better than other provinces more exposed to U.S. tariffs.”
The quarterly report, released Thursday, notes a partial easing of global trade tensions since spring, though geopolitical risks remain a drag on investment and business confidence. In Alberta, however, key sectors continue to provide support.
Homebuilding, steady energy production, and demand tied to population growth are among the main drivers. The Trans Mountain Expansion and the launch of LNG Canada are expected to boost activity, particularly for natural gas producers. Emerging demand from artificial intelligence data centres is also benefiting the sector.
Alberta’s economy is further diversifying, with recent growth in petrochemicals, food processing and technology contributing to the longer-term outlook. Yet challenges persist. While the province has a young and skilled workforce and relatively affordable housing, the unemployment rate is projected to remain elevated as more people join the labour force and employers remain cautious.
“Successfully fast-tracking major projects represents a clear upside to our forecast,” said Parsons. He added that boosting private capital investment will be key to sustaining economic momentum.
