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B.C. projects $69 billion economic hit, 124,000 lost jobs from Trump’s tariff plan

by HR News Canada

British Columbia’s economy could face a cumulative $69 billion loss between 2025 and 2028 if the United States imposes a 25% tariff on Canadian imports, according to a preliminary assessment released Thursday by the Ministry of Finance.

The report, prepared as president-elect Donald Trump prepares to take office, outlines the potential impact of a trade war with the United States. It predicts a 0.6% annual drop in the province’s real GDP for both 2025 and 2026, alongside 124,000 job losses by 2028. Sectors most at risk include natural resources, manufacturing, transportation, and retail.

The province’s unemployment rate could rise from its current level to 6.7% in 2025 and 7.1% in 2026. Corporate profits are projected to fall by $3.6 billion to $6.1 billion annually, while government revenues from personal and corporate taxes could drop by up to $2.5 billion a year, the ministry said.

“This assessment provides a snapshot of one possible scenario,” the ministry said, noting significant uncertainty about how U.S. policies will unfold.

The province is pursuing a three-part strategy to address the potential fallout. Measures include contingency planning for retaliation, accelerating domestic economic growth, and reducing reliance on the U.S. market by expanding trade with Asia-Pacific countries.

Premier David Eby has been meeting with U.S. state governors to highlight the cross-border impact of tariffs and will join other provincial premiers in Washington, D.C., on Feb. 12 to advocate for Canadian interests.

The report builds on prior analyses, including a 2019 Bank of Canada estimate suggesting that a 25% U.S. tariff could have a severe economic impact. National Bank recently characterized such a scenario as having a larger GDP impact than any previous recession, excluding the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Finance Minister Katrine Conroy is set to meet with the Economic Forecast Council later this month to gather input for Budget 2025, which will incorporate updated economic projections.

The report assumes that tariffs would remain in place throughout Trump’s presidency and that Canada would implement retaliatory measures. A full economic forecast is expected when Budget 2025 is released.

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