Noticed a little more elbow room lately? It’s not all in your head.
Canada’s population decreased by 76,068 people in the third quarter of 2025, marking the first quarterly decline in decades, according to preliminary estimates from Statistics Canada released today.
The population stood at 41,575,585 on Oct. 1, 2025, down 0.2 per cent from July 1. The decline represents a dramatic shift from the third quarter of 2023, when Canada recorded its highest quarterly growth rate since 1957.
Non-permanent residents drive population decline
The reduction in non-permanent residents was the primary driver of the population decrease, with 176,479 fewer temporary workers, students and asylum claimants during the quarter. This marked the largest drop in non-permanent residents since comparable records began in 1971.
Non-permanent residents now represent 6.8 per cent of Canada’s total population, down from 7.3 per cent three months earlier. The decrease resulted from record-high permit expirations (339,505) outpacing new permits issued (163,026).
Ontario saw the steepest decline with 107,280 fewer non-permanent residents, followed by British Columbia (26,242), Quebec (15,989) and Alberta (10,605).
Study permit holders see sharpest drop
The decrease was concentrated among study permit holders, who fell by 73,682, and those holding both work and study permits, which dropped by 67,616. Work permit holders declined by 35,231.
Ontario and British Columbia, which have the highest numbers of international students, experienced the largest reductions in study permit holders at 47,511 and 14,291 respectively.
The number of asylum claimants, protected persons and related groups increased by 7,324 to a record 504,767, though this represented the smallest quarterly increase since early 2022.
Permanent immigration remains stable
Canada welcomed 102,867 permanent immigrants during the quarter, similar to recent quarters and in line with Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada’s 2025-2027 immigration levels plan.
However, permanent immigration gains were insufficient to offset the decline in temporary residents. Natural population increase — births minus deaths — contributed just 17,600 people during the quarter.
Provincial impacts vary
Ontario and British Columbia recorded the largest population decreases at 0.4 per cent and 0.3 per cent respectively. Manitoba and the Northwest Territories each declined by 0.2 per cent.
Only Alberta and Nunavut saw population growth, both at 0.2 per cent. Alberta’s growth was its lowest since the second quarter of 2021 during COVID-19 border restrictions.
Ontario recorded its smallest net loss to other provinces and territories since late 2020, losing just 972 residents to interprovincial migration. Alberta gained 5,652 residents from other provinces during the quarter.
Statistics Canada noted that preliminary estimates will be updated in coming months as more complete administrative data becomes available. The population decrease could be smaller, larger, or even turn into an increase when final estimates are released.
