Nearly one-third of U.S. job openings cannot be filled by unemployed workers with matching occupational experience, according to new research that reveals a critical barrier in the labour market beyond simple supply and demand.
The study by SHRM, released Monday, found that 32.7 per cent of job openings as of July 2025 could not be filled by unemployed people whose most recent employment was in the same occupational group. At the same time, 26.5 per cent of unemployed people could not be matched to openings aligned with their occupational background.
The findings challenge the traditional unemployed-people-per-job-opening ratio, which assumes any unemployed person can fill any job opening. That metric overlooks occupational mismatch, where jobs remain unfilled because employer demands do not align with the occupational experience of available workers.
Implications for recruiting strategies
The research shows that even when overall labour market conditions appear favourable, certain occupational groups consistently face shortages while others have surplus labour.
“It’s not so much how many jobs are open, but rather if we have people with the relevant occupational experience to fill them,” said James Atkinson, vice-president of thought leadership at SHRM. “This occupational mismatch is a wake-up call for employers and policymakers alike.”
Atkinson said organizations need to invest in skills-first strategies and rethink how they connect talent to opportunity.
Sector-specific approaches needed
The data indicates that successful talent acquisition requires tailored approaches for specific occupational groups rather than one-size-fits-all solutions, according to SHRM.
The organization plans to continue expanding the research to provide actionable insights for navigating the labour market. SHRM members can access resources including toolkits and materials from the SHRM Foundation’s Center for a Skills First Future.
The study used monthly job openings data from Lightcast and unemployment figures from the Current Population Survey. SHRM has nearly 340,000 members in 180 countries.
