The The Conference Board reported its Employment Trends Index fell to 105.72 in March, down from a revised 105.84 in February, pointing to continued pressure in the U.S. labour market.
The index, a leading indicator of payroll employment, tracks eight labour-market measures to signal changes in hiring trends. A decline suggests slower job growth or potential losses in the months ahead.
“Job seekers continue to face a challenging market,” said Mitchell Barnes, economist at The Conference Board.
“This is evident in the ETI as several components moderated in March. Overall, the US economy has remained surprisingly resilient, but rising geopolitical uncertainty may contribute to ongoing employer hesitancy to add more workers.”
Mixed signals across labour indicators
Several components of the index weakened in March, contributing to the overall decline. Five of the eight indicators posted negative results, including measures tied to hiring difficulty and production activity.
At the same time, some indicators showed improvement, including job openings and hiring in temporary help services. Initial claims for unemployment insurance also declined, suggesting fewer layoffs.
Key labour market indicators showed:
- Jobs hard to get: 21.5% of consumers reported difficulty finding work, up five percentage points from March 2025
- Unfilled roles: 32% of small firms said positions could not be filled, down one percentage point
- Involuntary part-time work: 16.5%, rising from recent months but below 19.4% in December
- Unemployment claims: 207,800 initial claims, down from a 2025 average of 226,450
Employment in the temporary help sector rose slightly in March and has increased in three of the past five months, according to the report. Industrial production and real manufacturing and trade sales were steady in their most recent readings.
Index tracks turning points in hiring
The Employment Trends Index combines data from multiple sources, including consumer surveys, government labour statistics and industry reports. It is designed to signal shifts in hiring momentum before they appear in headline employment figures.
The eight components include measures such as job openings, unemployment claims, industrial production and consumer perceptions of job availability.
The Conference Board publishes the index monthly following the release of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics employment report.
